By J. Todd Ring
Preface:
I wrote this essay in January of 2020, then the covid crisis hit, and it was shelved for over a year. The macro-scale patterns have not changed fundamentally since then, although the slow-motion collapse of the US, and the West more broadly, has accelerated. I would offer the following as a synopsis and overview of what I see coming. I do not have a crystal ball, but the major patterns and trends are all deeply established and already set in motion; therefore, what I am predicting here, has a high probability of being generally accurate.
The US is headed for collapse, which will likely occur within this decade, and possibly very soon. Canada, Europe, Britain, Australia and New Zealand have all tied themselves to the sinking ship of the dying US empire, and so will suffer greatly for that deeply unwise move. Or rather, they tied themselves to the US after WWII, and were not perceptive enough to decouple from the US, when its decline became clear in the 1970s and ’80s, and undeniable by 2008. Russia and many other countries have largely decoupled from the US. Those who have not done so, will sink with the US, when it implodes and goes down.
China, Russia, India, Mexico and Brazil, will be the new economic super-powers, in a newly multi-polar world. Assuming we can avoid WWIII during the global tectonic shift, which is certainly not guaranteed, the world has the potential, at least, of becoming more equitable and more stable, as the global hegemony of the US and its satellites in NATO sink into secondary status, if not post-collapse chaos, and the Global South, or Third World, along with the East, find some long sought-after breathing space.
A multi-polar world will arrive, and with it, prospects for greater equality, freedom and peace – so long as we don’t blow ourselves up in the transition. The billionaire oligarchs who effectively rule the West, along with most of the world, however, want to maintain both their global hegemony, and their internal power: and the plutocrats are increasingly desperate, and are therefore taking increasingly desperate actions. That creates great danger for the world, including, most especially, for the people of the West, particularly in North America, Britain and Europe. But we should remember that desperate actions taken by desperate men show their weakness, not their power.
Meanwhile, Russia and China are now in an economic alliance, and each wants to preserve its own independence, above all, while they decouple from the collapsing US, but make short-term agreements with the Davos oligarchs, out of expedience.
It is an uncertain and dangerous time globally, to say the least. That is leaving aside the equally pressing issues of the environmental crisis, and fascism, which of course, also demand urgent attention and urgent action. But remember this. History is full of surprises. Nobody expected the American Revolution to succeed, but it did. Nobody expected WWI, but it happened. Nobody expected the collapse of the Soviet Union, but it happened nevertheless. Permanence is an illusion. Radical change happens unexpectedly. Only in hindsight, do the great majority come to see the precursors to radical change, after it happens, which the prescient few, saw in advance. It has always been so.
History is always unfolding, and full of uncertainty. That being said, we can see clear patterns unfolding. We can see the direction we are headed; and if we don’t change course, we will end up precisely where we were going, naturally.
Freedom, democracy, equality, ecology and peace are the core issues, I would say; and the core obstacles to all of these, are empire, authoritarianism and artificial scarcity. That is, or should be, our big picture orientation.
The five maxims of empire are to divide, demoralize, disempower, indoctrinate and control. We must, therefore, do precisely the opposite: unite, inspire, empower, inform and liberate.
As always, the future is in our hands. It just so happens, however, that this is, quite possibly, the most pivotal time in human history, and almost certainly so.
The world needs us now, more than ever. And we need each other. Unite the people, and fight for freedom, democracy, justice and peace, and a clean and healthy, better world for all.
JTR,
June 18, 2021
***
The original essay,
Written, January 2020:
Global Tectonic Shift
“They have plundered the world, stripping naked the land in their hunger… they are driven by greed, if their enemy be rich; by ambition, if poor… They ravage, they slaughter, they seize by false pretenses, and all of this they hail as the construction of empire. And when in their wake nothing remains but a desert, they call that peace.” ~ Tacitus
“In 1492 Columbus discovered America. He too had been seeking the East, and America, unluckily for its inhabitants, happened to lie in his way round the world. Here there were no guns to face, not even weapons of metal; the coasts lay open, and the two organized empires, Aztec and Inca, were both new and oppressive; the invaders could go much further than occupying odd harbours, which in any case would have been useless. Mexico was taken from the Aztecs, with the help of their neighbours, before 1520, and Peru from the Incas in the 1530s. Neither Spain nor Europe ever lost the intoxicating memory of these two great realms overthrown in the twinkling of an eye by a handful of white men; it cancelled the triumphs of the Turks, and gave the West a perpetual confidence in its power and its future.”
- An excerpt from a very interesting and thoughtful book on the history of Europe and the world: The Oldest Europe And Its Neighbours, by Victor Kiernan, Zed Books
Context is everything. History matters.
“England’s East India Company had been founded in 1600. These two rivals represented a new imperialism, not in need of any crusading motives to nerve it for enterprises in continents now relatively familiar, or of any ideology beyond that of the counting-house. The Turkish threat to Europe was receding; besides, to Dutchmen and Englishmen, Spain and the Inquisition, not Turkey and the Koran, were the menace. They had no notion of spreading Christianity in Asia; these Protestants kept religion, business and politics in separate compartments. As the natives were going to be roughly handled in either case, it may have been better for Christianity not to be compromised, as it was in America, by getting mixed up in the matter. Anglo-Dutch power in the East Indies, until well on in the nineteenth century, marked the most sordid but least hypocritical phase of European expansion.”
But we went back to ideological rationalizations, sometimes religious, sometimes secular: as now, the systemic and brutal imperial violence, which is not only military, but more often paramilitary, and above all, economic, is carried out in the name of spreading democracy and freedom, or intervening out of humanitarianism. And Orwell still rolls in his grave at the obvious and extreme deceit, and self-deceit.
Kiernan himself, quoted above, stumbles back into such comfortable self-delusions as are the norm. The ethnocentrism, and sheer cultural arrogance and presumption, are staggering:
“Today when Europe is no longer in the lead it is tempted to think, or to agree with others, that the civilization it was incubating was no unique property of its own but a stage of progress that other regions were moving towards. India on this view would have had cotton-mills, Japan would have come by submarines, whether Europe had brought them or not. This is of course possible, but may be regarded as exceedingly unlikely on any time-scale of centuries rather than millennia. An intricate set of interacting factors is required to bring about any significant historical transition, and there is small sign anywhere else (most perhaps in Japan) of anything like the complex of material and psychological forces then at work in north-west Europe. No other part of Europe itself could have made an Industrial Revolution. It is even doubtful whether any Asian country would have modernized itself by imitation of the West, if not forced by the West to do so as India, Japan, China all in different ways were.”
It bears repeating:
Comfortable self-delusions are the norm. The ethnocentrism, and sheer cultural arrogance and presumption, are staggering. Alas, the white man’s burden is a heavy one…
Kiernan and a great many others have begun to realize the dangers of such cultural arrogance, and such recognition is well-put here:
“Yet Europe’s conviction of being the only really civilized region was becoming so strong that even its offscourings, these Ishmaels of the seven seas, carried it with them, and were fortified by it in their lawlessness. Whatever a white man did must in some grotesque fashion be ‘civilized’.”
However, in the same essay Kiernan argues in defence and apologetics of European colonialism, neocolonialism and empire, as we have seen. And such stark self-contradiction, and self-deceit, is also the norm in the North-West.
And back again to rationalizations we return again and again: conquest is always for the benefit of the conquered, the subjugated, and the plundered, don’t you know…
“Westerners impregnated with their new ethos of change, progress, energy, invested Commerce with the same divine right that monarchy formerly claimed, and were irresistibly tempted to resort to force. They could feel that by doing so they were doing right, as the French Revolutionary armies marching over Europe and carrying liberty on their bayonets had felt. To knock down decrepit régimes was to liberate peoples from the crushing burden of their past. In the first stage of European expansion Spain and Portugal thought of making a return to benighted regions for what they took from them, by giving them Christianity. Now there was again a feeling that expansion ought to have some ideal purpose, a goal beyond sordid greed, which came to be expressed in the phrase ‘civilizing mission’. Backward lands would be given civilization, in return for the products wanted by Europe; Christianity might be part of it, though a subsidiary one. The idea of Europe’s ‘mission’ dawned early, but was taken up seriously in the nineteenth century. Turkey, China, and the rest would some day be prosperous, wrote Winwood Reade, one of the most sympathetic Westerners. ‘But those people will never begin to advance … until they enjoy the rights of man; and these they will never obtain except by means of European conquest.’” – ibid
“The civilizing mission was now all the rage, whereas in earlier years it had often been rejected as too expensive. It was easiest of all to believe that what was good for Europe must be even better for the ‘natives’. By now the white man had worked himself into a high state of self-conceit; but all through the century his reaction to any natives who tried to reject the blessings of civilized rule was that of Dr Johnson to the rebel Americans: ‘They are a race of convicts, and ought to be thankful for any thing we allow them short of hanging.’” – ibid
We have told ourselves we are bringing freedom, democracy, and civilization to the world. But we have brought guns and bombs, economic predation, subjugation, exploitation, colonialism, neocolonialism, and stark imperialism, no matter how it is rationalized, justified, or camouflaged. This is bringing aid and help to our neighbours? I am sure our neighbours would all agree, that kind of help, they can do without.
As my great literary hero, Thoreau said, “If I knew someone was coming to do me some good, I should like to get as far away as possible.”
And moreover, “The better part of what my neighbours believe to be good, I believe in my heart to be bad. What demon possessed me that I behaved so well.”
I agree with TS Eliot: We are the hollow men. The leaders of the free world? We are neither leaders nor free. We are cleverly driving ourselves in a frantic race toward our own extinction – with tyranny and fascism, neofeudalism and war, a toxic landscape and a toxic culture, as landmarks along the way. And through our benevolent leadership we have convinced or coerced the rest of the world to join us in our madness, and our race to oblivion. Some leadership.
I agree with Gandhi. When he was asked what he thought of Western civilization he replied, “I think it would be a good idea.”
To the presumed superiority of (North-)Western civilization, I say, we are neither superior, nor civilized.
We are but one corner of the globe, for a time dominant, but in no way superior to other societies. Each society has its glories and its shames, its triumphs and its failings. We are no different, and no better.
Was Nazi Germany twisted, diabolical, demented, deluded and depraved? Unquestionably. Cultural relativism, nihilism and post-modernism are a wasteland of the mind, leading to madness. There are faults, and there are great failings, and we should not pretend that war is peace, or slavery is freedom, lest we simply lose our minds in the act of self-delusion.
And I agree with Thoreau. Is modern society, or modern Western society, either one, however you care to look at it, in any real way superior to older, earlier societies, or to native societies, for example? His response was a definitive, No. And I agree. As America’s greatest philosopher, Henry David Thoreau said, We have improved the houses men live in (perhaps), but not the character of the men who live in them.
Here, here.
We have gained much, but lost more. We have toys and trinkets and gadgets galore, but our souls are hollow, our minds and spirits debased, our communities and communion eroded and degraded and largely gone, our morals and ethics deeply in question, and generally serving power and expedience, over all calls of conscience or compassion. And we are less happy and less free.
We are fatter, weaker, less healthy, less vigourous, less strong in both body and mind, and in spirit; and every psychological, sociological and anthropological study shows us to be less happy, more lost and adrift, and more lonely and alienated than “primitive” societies of 10,000 years ago. Clearly we need to rethink our notions of “progress”, “development”, “civilization”, “freedom”, and “the good life”.
Medieval, ancient, “primitive”, and indigenous societies can teach us much. As can the global South, and the East. We do not need to become primitivists, or orientalists, but we do need to dispense with our ill-conceived and disastrous, misguided and frankly delusional sense of cultural superiority. If we do not, chances are that none of us, anywhere on Earth, will survive.
It will be a post-imperial world ahead, or it will be a post-human world. And to get to that post-imperial world, which is the heart of the transition we must make now, we will need guidance, as well as courage, compassion, and common sense.
Some of that good guidance will come from the West, some from the East, some from the North, and much from the South.
And we will be wise to seek counsel from traditional indigenous peoples, who still remember how to be stewards and protectors of the land and the waters, and not despoilers, looters and pillagers only.
“First Nation’s Peoples — and the decision of Canadians to stand alongside them — will determine the fate of the planet.”
—Guardian, UK
And we must note, and remember, how that spirit of common cause, unity, solidarity, shared purpose, and peace, is starkly at odds with the history of colonialism, neocolonialism, imperialism, and empire. The contrast between what must be left behind, and what must come next, if we are to survive at all, could scarcely be more stark.
*
The Doctrine of Discovery
“…to invade, search out, capture, vanquish and subdue all Saracens and pagans whatsoever, and other enemies of Christ, wheresoever placed, and the kingdoms, dukedoms, principalities, dominions, possessions, and all moveable and immoveable goods whatsoever, held and possessed by them, and to reduce their persons to perpetual slavery, and to apply and appropriate to himself and to his successors the kingdoms, dukedoms, counties, principalities, dominions, possessions and goods, and to convert them to his and their use and profit.”
– Pope Nicholas V (Papal Bull 1452)
Infantile grandiosity? Imperial hubris? Extreme cultural arrogance? Sheer racist lunacy? Demonic possession? Whatever it was, such mutually destructive madness must end now.
The following battle lines will only heat up, mark my words; and to state the obvious, until the age of empires, and the war on nature, are brought to an end:
Solidarity, stewardship, and peace – not fossil fuels, pipelines, Big Oil, planetary destruction and imperial hubris: this is what we need, and now. Support native rights and environmental protection, with human rights, equality and freedom for all – not planetary pillage by a rampaging, Caligula-like, utterly delusional and power-drunk plutocracy, infused with suicidal corporate greed.
US professor of law and indigenous studies, Robert A. Williams Jr., author of Savage Anxieties, put it simply and directly, in an interview with the venerable Bill Moyers: “The Western world has been at war with the tribal world for 3,000 years.” This, along with the class war, the gender war, the wars of race and colonialism, and the war on nature, is the root of imperialism and empire, and the 5,000 year old social model based on hierarchies of power, conquest and domination. That war must end now, that social model must end now, the age of empires, along with its inseparably intertwined war on nature, must end now, or the human species will simply end, itself – or at least, anything resembling civilization, or the possibility for a decent human life, will soon come to an end.
*
We should remember that Europe was a cultural backwater, for nearly a thousand years after the fall of the inglorious Roman Empire. The conquest of the Americas, with its incomprehensible wealth, looted and pillaged by way of genocidal mass slaughter, propelled Europe into a position of global dominance. This mass theft, and mass slaughter, not an innate moral, cultural or intellectual superiority, is what gave rise to five centuries of global domination by Europe and its most favoured colonies. Let us now be unabashedly honest about it – for a change.
That inconceivably vast loot, stolen from two continents in the Americas; combined with cheap, abundant, destitute, near-slave labour, after the mass dislocation caused by the grand theft of the land and the commons, which was the land-enclosure acts; combined with a third staggeringly vast pool of resources, which was England’s discovery of coal reserves, equal to Saudi Arabia’s oil wealth at its peak, just under their feet; and combined with the unspeakable institution of slavery; together brought about the Industrial Revolution – and not just European cleverness and industriousness, as it has been assumed.
Remember also, that at the time of the industrial revolution, India had a higher quantity and also a higher quality of steel output than England. Active de-industrialization was part of colonization and empire building. It still is.
In any case, the global dominance of the European and Euro-American North-West lasted roughly 500 years, and is ending now. It is becoming a multi-polar world; and I think that bodes well for the world – including for that North-West corner of the world, which has become known as, “The West”.
History is never over, as some have foolishly posited. History is still unfolding – is ever unfolding. And we are either making it, shaping it together; or watching it unfold, pathetically and passively. But unfold it will, in either case.
And major changes lay in store. What shape they take, is largely up to us. What I do hope, is that the age of empires, after 5,000 years, can be put behind us, as foolishness from our youth.
Let there be freedom. And let there be peace.
*
We should remember also, that Europeans didn’t invent empire. There were the Persians, the Egyptians, the Babylonians, and many others before.
And we would do well to read the Book of Daniel. The succession of empires will end. There will be peace. How soon, depends upon what we do, or fail to do, right now. Extinction or rebirth? That is our choice, at this critical juncture, of our shared human history on Earth.
Europe didn’t invent slavery, conquest, domination, usurpation, annexation, or empire. Nor did they invent the heirarchical power structures, inequality and elite rule, which give rise to tyranny and predations, both at home and abroad, and which are the seedbed and germination of empire itself.
But the decline and fall of the European and Euro-descendent American empire, slow or sudden as it may come, and inexorable as it is, may well mark the growing of a global awakening across the world’s great human family, and the beginning of the end, of the age of empires itself. Let us hope that it is. Let us pray we are so wise; or simply, so sane. The alternatives are nothing short of grim, at best.
In fact, the likelihood is this: what we are facing now, in the early part of the 21st century, is either the dying of the age of empires, or the dying of humanity, and the human species on Earth. Let us hope we are sensible enough, despite the all-pervasive fog of delusion, and the stupor of imagined powerlessness, and denial, to choose the former, and not simply drift aimlessly into the latter, with a moan, and a collective whimper, or a yawn.
Stand, I say.
*
As Bob Marley sang:
“400 years
(500+ now)
Of the same philosophy…”
(Imperialism *is* neofeudalism)
“Babylon system is a vampire
Suckin’ the blood of the sufferers
Tell the children the truth
Tell the children the truth
That we’ve been grinded on the wine press
Much too long
Rebel
Rebel….”
And this means the people of the North and the West, as well as the South and the East:
Rebel, rebel.
Imperialism and neofeudalism, elitism and tyranny, always go together. We can have empire; or we can have freedom, democracy, justice, equality, and peace. But we cannot have empire, and also have the latter, infinitely superior things.
*
“Hardly any European countries had significant connections, other than imperial, with any continent except America. Towards the end of the century, the ‘age of imperialism’ proper, a craze for annexations seized on everyone who had any chance, and Italy, Germany, Belgium all got shares, with the USA joining in. Individual businessmen were obviously doing well out of colonies; nations were easily tutored into believing (nearly always mistakenly) that they could do equally well, especially when they saw that all their neighbours believed it.”
– ibid
Again, imperialism abroad, breeds tyranny at home; and in the end, either fascism or neofeudalism, as we are being driven into, like cattle, right now.
Orwell understood. Gandhi understood, as did Thoreau. Mark Twain understood. Martin Luther King Jr. understood. Do we?
Rebel, rebel.
It is time for justice. It is time for freedom. And it is time for peace. And we will not have peace, until we also have justice and freedom.
Rebel.
(Que the John Lennon.)
Power to the people.
*
Europe and Euro-America didn’t give the world Shakespeare, Einstein, Socrates, Botticelli, democracy and the Magna Carta *because* we set out to conquer the world, because of empire, but despite it. Empire, at its heart, is always brutal, is always the enemy of freedom, democracy, justice, compassion, peace, and civilization itself, at least in any meaningful or positive definition of the word.
It is time now for Europe and America to relinquish the empire-lust of their youth, and the infantile grandiosity which always accompanies it, and with maturity and grace, accept their position as great powers in a multi-polar world, where war and conquest, empire and power struggles, are not only barbaric and uncivilized as ever, but are now positively suicidal. It is time to become great civilizations. And that is only possible if we now together declare that the age of empires is dead.
Let there be peace. There is much to be shared, and much work to be done. We have a world to be saved from our own ecological neglect. Infighting and imperial power games will only distract and divide us, at a time when we need unity amidst diversity, as well as democracy and freedom, in order to save ourselves from ourselves, and from our own tyrannizing, world-devouring elites.
Remember liberty, equality, solidarity and mutual aid, on the road ahead – they are essential, and they are under attack.
Let there be peace now. Let the age of empires be over. It is entirely in our power to choose it, and make it so. There is much work, great work, to be done. Let us begin. Together, and in peace.
JTR,
February 20, 2020
Writings of J. Todd Ring 